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| Industry advice |
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1. Land development maintained high growth rate. |
Since 2006, area of land development in real estate trade rebounded sharply after slow or negative growth in two consecutive years. From January to November, 198 million square meters of land was developed throughout China, an increase of 38.1% with the growth rate 40.3% percentage higher over the same period last year. The year 2006 witnessed another growth peak after 2003.
New national policies on regulation of real estate investment provide clearly that enterprises shall be charged of occupancy fee if they buy lands but not develop them within one year, and the purchased lands shall be confiscated if not developed within two years. Under policy pressure, land developers speeded up the pace of land development. On the other hand, the total land purchased by real estate development companies continued to decline. From January to November, 295 million square meters of land was purchased, a drop of 5.2%, declining by 9.2 percentage points over the same period last year. |
2. Investment was growing slowly. |
Affected by policy pressure, the growth rate of real estate investment was generally in a downward trend ever since 2004. As the outlook of real estate market remains unclear, many developers are not as optimistic about the investment prospect. Still, from January to November in 2006, 1641.6 billion yuan was invested in real estate development nation-wide, a year-on-year increase of 24%, 2.5 percentage points higher over the corresponding period previous year, but 24.7 percentage points lower than the peak growth rate (48.7%). Nevertheless, real estate development remains to be an important stimulator of fixed assets investment, which accounted for 21% of the total fixed assets investment in urban areas.
Within this total, state-owned and state-holding investment reached 263.944 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8%; Investment in real estate development by state-owned and state-holding enterprises declined from 17.7% the same period previously to 16.1% in 2006. |
3. Residential investment growth accelerated over the same period last year, while office and commercial buildings investment growth declined.
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Residential investment increased by 28.4%, 6.1 percentage points over the corresponding growth rate previous year, of which affordable housing investment grew by 10.4%, 19.2 percentage points over the corresponding growth rate previously (8.8% decline); investment in office buildings went up by 20.2%, growth rate dropping 1.2 percentage points over the same period last year; commercial housings investment grew by 16.4% with a growth rate 5.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year; Other investment mounted by 11.2%, growth rate 11.4% lower than the same period last year. Residential investment remains to be the major dynamic in promoting constant growth of real estate development and investment.
From January to November, 2006 the proportion of investment on office and commercial buildings declined, while that of residential investment rose compared with the same period previous year. Specifically, residential, office and commercial housings accounted for 70.4%, 4.6% and 11.9% of the total real estate development and investment. In the shadow of continuous declined investment growth rate, affordable housing investment accounted for a lower proportion from 3.6% in 2005 to 3. 2%. This situation put low or middle-income people at substantial disadvantage. |
4. Domestic loan injected power and strength into real estate investment. |
From January to November 2006, all the real estate development enterprises had totaled capital of 2276.427 billion yuan in place, an increase of 29.8%. Bank loans and deposit or advance payment, two most important sources of funds for real estate development, accounted for over 50% or even 60% in certain months. Since 2005, the two sources have revealed completely different development trends: domestic loan arises to be a major driving force for growth of real estate investment, while deposit or advance payment decrease significantly.
Under the national macro-regulation, many potential buyers were not confident about the market prospect and took a wait-and-see attitude. As a result, deposit and advance payment has reached the first negative growth in February since 2004, a drop of 24.5% compared with the same period previously. As to the overall situation from January to November, negative growth of deposit and advance payment has been reversed and achieved an increase of 1.7%. However, due to lower growth rate in the beginning, their proportion in real estate funds has declined from 38.1% by the end of the same period last year to 29.8%, a drop of 8.3 percentage points.
As a sharp contrast to decline of deposit and advance payment, domestic loan has climbed moderately since June, 2005 and showed dramatic rebounding trend after a growth declining period in 2004. From January to November, domestic loans increased dramatically to 44.9%, far exceeding the proportion in the same period previous year, to the point that powerful domestic loans sustained investment in real estate. Meanwhile, bank loans accounted for a higher proportion as a funds source of real estate development, rising from 18.2% in the same period previous year to 20.3%. |
5. Commercial housing construction and completion area achieved higher growth rate.
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From January to November, area under construction and floor space newly constructed of commercial housing and commercial residential buildings saw lower growth rate, while area completed and of sales showed higher growth rate.
From January to November, commercial housing construction area totaled 1.762 billion square meters, an increase of 18.4%, the growth rate basically the same as last year. In November, area under construction was 63 million square meters, an increase of 7.6%, but 3.6% lower than October and 23.2% lower than September; Area under construction of commodity residential housing was up to 1.377 billion square meters, an increase of 19.2% with a growth rate similar to that in 2005. In November, area under construction of commodity residential housing reached 51 million square meters, increasing by 11%, but declined by 4.2% over October and by 21.3% than September.
Floor space newly constructed totaled 650 million square meters, an increase of 18% with a growth rate 5.7 percentages higher over the same period previous year. In November, newly constructed area totaled 52 million square meters, increasing by 17%, 4.8% higher compared with October but 14.8% lower than September; The newly constructed commodity residential housings covered a total area of 530 million square meters, growing by 19.1% with a growth rate 4.8 percentages higher over the same period previous year. In November, 41 million square meters of land were newly constructed to build commodity residential housing, an increase of 16.5%, which was basically the same as in October and fell by 16.3%than in September.
A total of 305 million square meters of commercial housing was completed, an increase of 8.8%, growth rate 9.8 percentage points lower than the same period previous year. In November, 47 million square meters of construction was completed, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, growing by 24% than in October and by 51.6% than in September; A sum of 251 million square meters of commodity residential housings were completed, increasing by 8.9% over the same period previous year, with a growth rate 9.5 percentage points lower. In November, 38 million square meters of commodity residential housings was completed, an increase of 10.2% compared to the same period previously, growing by 20.2% than in October and by 47.8% than September.
A sum of 460 million square meters of commercial housing was sold, an increase of 12%. In November, 53 million square meters was sold, growing by 32.1% compared to the same period previous year, increasing by 8.9% than October and 18.5% than September; A total of 416 million square meters of commodity residential housing was sold, up 12.6%. In November, 48 million square meters of housing was sold, an increase of 31.1% than previous year, 8% than October and 18.8% over September. |
6. Price of commercial housing generally grew steadily and rose fast in some cities. |
According to urban housing sales price index on 70 cities all over China, in November 2006, housing price increased by 5.2% compared to the same period previous year, the growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month; Up 0.5% over the previous month with a growth rate 0.1 percentage points higher. Price of newly constructed commodity residential housing rose by 5.8% over the same period previous year, with a growth rate 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month; Up 0.6% than the previous month, growth rate rising by 0.1 percentage points. Besides, in November prices of affordable housing, top-grade commodity residential housing and general commodity residential housing rose by 1.6%, 6.4% and 5.5% respectively over the same period previous year. Compared with the previous month, growth rate of affordable housing was 0.1 percentage point higher, general commodity housing maintained similar growth rate, while that of high-grade commodity residential housing decreased by 2.2 percentage points.
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